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Finding our groove

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Blitchga

  • Posts: 130
  • Joined: Thu May 22, 2014 4:14 pm

Finding our groove

PostSat Nov 25, 2017 3:23 pm

Since the release of cards I am back to feeling the way I did in Dropzone after the implementation of cards. We are clearly inferior. :(

It has gotten me trying to find a list or composition that I like and feel can handle all three opponent races.

In my analysis so far I have found that the clear winner in many respects is the Seattle. The arcs and manoeuvrability for the cost has made it a favourite for me. That being said it needs to be included in maximum or nearly maximum numbers to be truly useful. Have others found the same thing? What ships or compositions are you finding that can handle a myriad of different threats?

Btw, this is the type of list I am referring to:

--------------------------------------
5 Seattle - 1241pts
UCM - 15 launch assets

SR12 Line battlegroup (328pts)
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
2 x Jakarta - 64pts - L

SR9 Line battlegroup (260pts)
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
   + UCM Commodore (40pts, 3AV)
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L

SR12 Line battlegroup (328pts)
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
2 x Jakarta - 64pts - L

SR6 Pathfinder battlegroup (111pts)
1 x Madrid - 79pts - M
1 x New Orleans - 32pts - L

SR7 Pathfinder battlegroup (174pts)
3 x Santiago - 66pts - L
2 x Santiago - 44pts - L
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L
--------------------------------------
http://dflist.com/s/#/share/f1d7509844739
--------------------------------------
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Shikatanai

  • Posts: 246
  • Joined: Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:54 pm

Re: Finding our groove

PostSat Nov 25, 2017 3:59 pm

Blitchga wrote:Since the release of cards I am back to feeling the way I did in Dropzone after the implementation of cards. We are clearly inferior. :(

It has gotten me trying to find a list or composition that I like and feel can handle all three opponent races.

In my analysis so far I have found that the clear winner in many respects is the Seattle. The arcs and manoeuvrability for the cost has made it a favourite for me. That being said it needs to be included in maximum or nearly maximum numbers to be truly useful. Have others found the same thing? What ships or compositions are you finding that can handle a myriad of different threats?

Btw, this is the type of list I am referring to:

--------------------------------------
5 Seattle - 1241pts
UCM - 15 launch assets

SR12 Line battlegroup (328pts)
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
2 x Jakarta - 64pts - L

SR9 Line battlegroup (260pts)
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
   + UCM Commodore (40pts, 3AV)
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L

SR12 Line battlegroup (328pts)
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
1 x Seattle - 132pts - M
2 x Jakarta - 64pts - L

SR6 Pathfinder battlegroup (111pts)
1 x Madrid - 79pts - M
1 x New Orleans - 32pts - L

SR7 Pathfinder battlegroup (174pts)
3 x Santiago - 66pts - L
2 x Santiago - 44pts - L
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L
--------------------------------------
http://dflist.com/s/#/share/f1d7509844739
--------------------------------------


Imho the way to go right now for UCM is massive amounts of BTLs with a lot of drop. Good objective pressure and good firststrike potential. It suffers against Shaltari but that's anyway the worst matchup in the game balancingwise imho. Arcs are not nearly as important on those UCM ships as it seems on first sight - the only ships where it's really important are Ships that want to go WF and the ones in the UCM force are usually subpar anyway. F(N) arcs are fine if you work with scans and get your positioning right.
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Blitchga

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Re: Finding our groove

PostSat Nov 25, 2017 5:33 pm

When comparing BTL and Mass Drivers you need to understand a few things about statistics. Ultimately looking at average damage is such a rudimentary way of comparing two significantly different weapons that it is going to lead to mis-conceptions, exactly like it has. Average damage is just that, average and in a game where timing matters the average isn't as useful as the distribution of the full results.

The biggest problem when comparing BTL and Mass Drivers (aside from comparing apples to oranges in terms of arcs and orders etc) is that BTLs are logarithmic in nature (Especially when factoring in armour saves) and so while having a higher chance to do more damage they also have a very statistically relevant chance to do less damage. Mass drivers follow a Gaussian distribution and so are more reliable to say the least. Add in arcs and personally I will take a pair of UF-6400s every day. Especially if it has launch bays in place of the useless shoulder UF-4200s. :)

I am not saying that BTLs are bad but simply that they are not as amazing as people think. :)
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Nobody

  • Posts: 859
  • Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:25 am

Re: Finding our groove

PostSat Nov 25, 2017 5:57 pm

I think Mass Drivers are the Tortoise to the BTL Hare. Unfortunately, while the Tortoise eventually wins the race, we need those bursts of short speed right now.

IMO, I'm kinda looking at something like this:

--------------------------------------
Taskforce Avalon - 1247pts
UCM - 0 launch assets

SR11 Vanguard battlegroup (232pts)
1 x Avalon - 195pts - H
+ UCM Admiral (100pts, 5AV)
1 x Lima - 37pts - L

SR7 Line battlegroup (175pts)
1 x San Francisco - 111pts - M
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L

SR16 Line battlegroup (301pts)
3 x New Cairo - 264pts - M
1 x Lima - 37pts - L

SR7 Line battlegroup (175pts)
1 x San Francisco - 111pts - M
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L

SR4 Pathfinder battlegroup (128pts)
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L
2 x New Orleans - 64pts - L

SR4 Pathfinder battlegroup (156pts)
4 x Taipei - 156pts - L
------------- dflist.com -------------

A ton of drop, a fast BG of Taipeis to ruin somebody's day, and 4 BTLs with 2 Limas to help them find range.

An alternative I'm looking at removes 1 of the Limas and 2 New Orleans for 4 Santiagos
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Shikatanai

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Re: Finding our groove

PostSat Nov 25, 2017 9:33 pm

Blitchga wrote:When comparing BTL and Mass Drivers you need to understand a few things about statistics. Ultimately looking at average damage is such a rudimentary way of comparing two significantly different weapons that it is going to lead to mis-conceptions, exactly like it has. Average damage is just that, average and in a game where timing matters the average isn't as useful as the distribution of the full results.

The biggest problem when comparing BTL and Mass Drivers (aside from comparing apples to oranges in terms of arcs and orders etc) is that BTLs are logarithmic in nature (Especially when factoring in armour saves) and so while having a higher chance to do more damage they also have a very statistically relevant chance to do less damage. Mass drivers follow a Gaussian distribution and so are more reliable to say the least. Add in arcs and personally I will take a pair of UF-6400s every day. Especially if it has launch bays in place of the useless shoulder UF-4200s. :)

I am not saying that BTLs are bad but simply that they are not as amazing as people think. :)


Besides the other things I already wrote under this comment in some other thread:
The Chance to do an over average result is still higher than doing below average. Bringing more BTL shifts the overall damage more and more in favor of BTLs compared to the same amount of massdrivers.
1 BTL is gamble - bringing them in numbers is not.
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Blitchga

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Re: Finding our groove

PostSat Nov 25, 2017 10:00 pm

I am glad you think that but if we even just look at the chances of you getting 5 or 6 hits or Crits with no destination between them we get almost the exact same chances as missing the first two shots outright. 11.7% to 11.1% respectively. And that is not distinguishing between hits and Crits.

I don't want to argue, if you do the math you will find exactly what I am saying. If you want to believe something else then only use BTLs and I will continue to use a mix or only mass drivers and we will both be fine. :) Just wanted to discuss something I had been noticing. I realize that change to common beliefs is difficult though so I resign.

Good luck and may your BTLs cut the enemies of humanity to pieces with precision!
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Cry of the Wind

Hawk Talon

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Re: Finding our groove

PostSun Nov 26, 2017 2:27 am

Blitchga I think you need to show your work for us to understand your point. Talking about different distribution types is nice and all but I want to see the numbers to back up what you are saying about the mass drivers being decent. All I see right now is that BTLs have 11.1% chance to cripple a cruiser while the mass driver has 0% chance of that. In fact it is more than 11.1% since I only need 5 damage not 6. Combine that with the ease of putting 5-6 cobra lasers into a fleet and it reduces the worries of bad dice even more (as mentioned many times).

That alone is why the BTL is going to be looked at favourably even if middle damage is equal to it. I know firing 6400s will never cripple a ship but one BTL can (plus that spike or two to make the target easier to hit with other ships). Unless the stats are really skewed towards 6400s doing 3 damage much more often its gonna be hard to shift the crowd away from loving the BTL. Note, I've been removing Cobras and just replacing them with Vipers to avoid the issue altogether and just erase ships :lol:
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wundergoat

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Re: Finding our groove

PostSun Nov 26, 2017 7:29 am

Blitchga, you are right that average damage isn't the only factor, but you have to remember that the point of weapons isn't to do damage, it's to remove opposing ships from play. BTLs being able to put up higher damage values, both on average and as a max, makes them outshine mass drivers most of the time. The nature of deployment types, objectives, and set game length further enhance the value of BTLs vs mass drivers.


*edit* mispelled Blitchga's name :cry:
Last edited by wundergoat on Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Shikatanai

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Re: Finding our groove

PostSun Nov 26, 2017 10:53 am

Blitchga wrote:I am glad you think that but if we even just look at the chances of you getting 5 or 6 hits or Crits with no destination between them we get almost the exact same chances as missing the first two shots outright. 11.7% to 11.1% respectively. And that is not distinguishing between hits and Crits.

I don't want to argue, if you do the math you will find exactly what I am saying. If you want to believe something else then only use BTLs and I will continue to use a mix or only mass drivers and we will both be fine. :) Just wanted to discuss something I had been noticing. I realize that change to common beliefs is difficult though so I resign.

Good luck and may your BTLs cut the enemies of humanity to pieces with precision!


I did not do the math myself but several people did (Facebook group). :)

Yes you have 11.1% chance to do 0 damage - the Massdriver has roughly the same chance to do 0 or 1 damage. The BTL also has roughly the same chance to do 0, 1 or 2 damage as the massdriver which of course has higher chances for 1 or 2 damage in that case but that does not matter as much ingame as you do not want your ships to chip away hull but to outright remove or cripple ships.

On the other hand the chances for 3-6 damage is roughly the same as for 3-4 damage on the Massdriver while you have the chance to do more than 4. (and this chance is higher than doing 0-2 damage) This is crucial to remove ships quickly while bringing a large number of BTL also limits the impact of the unreliability compared to massdrivers.

Besides that the chance to crit much more gets the BTL even further ahead. 2/3 chance on the first roll to only score crits afterwards is huge as this game is extremely bloody and trading quickly is important to lower the firepower of your opponent.
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Lorn

Hawk Talon

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Re: Finding our groove

PostSun Nov 26, 2017 11:29 am

Blitchga wrote:I don't want to argue, if you do the math you will find exactly what I am saying.


But what exactly are you saying? Gauss distribution is better then Logarithmic? You will have to make your point clear for people to understand it. Currently I do not get your point just your conclusion which puzzles me. Don´t take this the wrong way but if you try to present a conclusion that is different from the "common belief" you should explain your argument. Otherwise you will never convince anybody no matter if you are right or wrong.

Blitchga wrote:I am glad you think that but if we even just look at the chances of you getting 5 or 6 hits or Crits with no destination between them we get almost the exact same chances as missing the first two shots outright. 11.7% to 11.1% respectively. And that is not distinguishing between hits and Crits.


Actually the chance to do a combination of 5-6 Hits and Crits with a BTL is 35% (rounded), so I suspect part of our communication issues are based on different numbers. Redo your calculations or compare them to others I fear there might be a mistake as BTL are a bitch to calculate I did it once for the Beta and as BTL changed slightly later I preferred to rely on other peoples data I sampled for the minor changes. It is easy to overlook a mechanic in the calculations or to forget certain probabilities.

German space magic for PHR would you like to know more?
http://www.hawkforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=7017

German space magic for all and this time it is in Space!
viewtopic.php?f=36&t=10506

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