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Dealing with/planning for bad dice

Discuss tactics and general army concepts not specific to a faction
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georgewashington1794

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Re: Dealing with/planning for bad dice

PostSun Apr 03, 2016 8:26 pm

Bengt wrote:While you do get an average of .67 successes on 2 5+ rolls if you want to know the chance of this particular event you'll have to do a little more math than just adding the numbers together. Getting at least one success with 2 5+ is 1-(2/3 * 2/3) = 5/9 ~56%; 3 5+ 1-(2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3) = 19/27 ~70%; 4 5+ 1-(2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3) = 65/81 ~80% and so on.



Thank you! This is what I was trying to figure out. To calculate the probability, do 1 - (The chance of not succeeding)^number of dice rolled. Multiply the result by 100 and this is the percent chance of succeeding. I wanted this, in part, to help me calculate the probability of damaging a Shaltari unit. Now I know just how dismal my chances are :D
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wundergoat

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Re: Dealing with/planning for bad dice

PostTue Apr 05, 2016 4:50 am

I've got more than my fair share of experience dealing with bad dice :lol: The main thing that I find helps is having some way of being mobile to react to and mitigate the effects of your misfortune. This cuts both ways - that same mobility can be used to capitalize on the dice gods favoring you. Of course, your investment in mobility needs to be balanced with the rest of the needs of the list...

One thing to keep in mind is that "good/bad dice" occur most often with swingy weapons, which in DZC are generally high powered single shot guns. Less shots means that there is more variability across a game, which means there are more unexpected situations for mobility to pay out. On the flip side, lots of shots will yield consistent results but won't often yield a surprise.

Case in point: a squad of 3 katanas does 6.67 damage average to a building per turn. A seraphim does 4.62 damage per turn to a building, figuring making an attack run on a 2+. However, the seraphim will level a small building from a full 10DP about 23% of the time while the katanas only pull it off about 8.5% of the time.
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Hadhafang V2

Hawk Talon

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Re: Dealing with/planning for bad dice

PostTue Apr 05, 2016 2:16 pm

I think for me (sorry to weigh into this late) there are inherent checks and balances within this game itself; that help to mitigate against poor rolls. Unlike other games I've played, where there is greater capacity for re-rolling, or buffing/de-buffing as a matter of course, DZC has one built in factor that if exploited will mitigate heavily against poor dice rolling. Objectives. I'll explain using anecdotal evidence (not the best I know).

Played a 1000 point game on Friday seeing my Shaltari pitched against 'Garbutt's' PHR; scenario was the first one . . . my mind's gone blank on the name. After a smoking hot couple of rolls at the very start, which saw me down and then explode one of his neptunes, losing everything inside, my rolls pretty much went bad . . . very bad. I could have gone on a full tilt; and played poorly, but I kept my head and focussed as much as I could on securing and extracting my one objective, having held off my opponents ability to extract (or even search for) objectives, until it was too late. Essentially I rolled exceptionally badly other than for those first two rolls, and got wiped on the floor . . . but I won by focussing on the objective. A successful search roll of a 5+ by my opponent (literally the last throw of the dice) would have equalled it at a draw.

My point is that sure, you can do the math, stack your probabilities and mash your opponent . . . if you're a skilled tactician you'll do that and still ensure you maximise objectives. But if you're not, and dice aren't going your way, take a minute for a breather and stop any tilt before it sets in, then focus on the things that really matter.
Richard Godfrey-Oakley
Tournament barrel scraper,
Warlords of Walsall,
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