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Fast Mover Activation Chance

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SwordOfJustice

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Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostMon Apr 11, 2016 8:13 am

I thought it would be interesting to work out what the chance is for a Fast Mover to be able to come out of reserve and do an Attack Run.

Method:
- Chance to come out of reserve multiplied by chance to activate.
- Calculate for no Forward Observer bonus, then with FAC bonus.

No FAC
Turn One 14%
Turn Two 42%
Turn Three onwards 69%

With FAC
Turn One 17%
Turn Two 50%
Turn Three onwards 83%

After that, you can work out what chances you have to hit, how many shots, etc for the individual FM.

Of course, once you're out of reserve then the FM is available 83% without FAC or always with FAC.
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Cry of the Wind

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostMon Apr 11, 2016 5:04 pm

Interesting to see but I find the numbers to be less important in actual game play. When they show up great they do their thing. If they don't then I don't worry about it. Having been using a pair of Seraphim for the last 8 games and a couple Archangels too for the last 3 I'm not too worried about their stats chance.

When they work they tend to work very very well and are under costed. The problem is when they don't show up or miss their bomb drop that their high costs seems like an issue. I would be overjoyed if your stats find they are less effective than Hawk intended them to be and they get a points reduction. If not well, never tell me the odds :P !
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SwordOfJustice

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostTue Apr 12, 2016 12:44 am

Well, then we're different players. :D

I like to quantify what game units can do and the only way to do that is with math. It helps me get a handle on what I can expect when my squad fires on an enemy unit and other things.

We all have those strings of lucky or unlucky rolls. With time, all those random fluctuations even out.

Knowing the statistics helps make effective game strategies.

Anyway, there's nothing wrong with playing models that one likes, stats be damned; it's just different approaches to the hobby. 8-)
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Weidekuh

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostTue Apr 12, 2016 6:13 am

I like having a rough estimation on the probabilities.

From a strategical point of view I prefer to know the chance like following:

Chances to do a succesfull attack run at turn x or earlier: Without FAC
1 - ~14%
2 - ~48%
3 - ~78%
4 - ~82%
5 - ~83%
6 - ~83%


Chances to do a succesfull attack run at turn x or earlier: With FAC
1 - ~16%
2 - ~58%
3 - ~93%
4 - ~99%

You can see how important it is to have a FAC with LoS to the enemy from turn 3 onwards.

@Cry of the Wind
Saying that a unit is undercosted, when it works is... kinda not saying much. Every unit is undercosted, if they always work. What you probably mean is Fast Movers are undercosted, if you don't factor in their huge unrelyability to turn up in the first place? ;)

The more games you want to win in a row, the worse Fast Movers get. Because they have a huge downside, as long as they stay in reserve.

I would change the Fast Mover battlegroup to the following: Add 1 Infantry slot. Only this infantry unit can be a FAC.
This gives you the choice to still have 6 activations on turn 1, for the cost of a single Infantry unit (with transport).
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Paul7926

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostTue Apr 12, 2016 9:36 am

Weidekuh wrote:I would change the Fast Mover battlegroup to the following: Add 1 Infantry slot. Only this infantry unit can be a FAC.
This gives you the choice to still have 6 activations on turn 1, for the cost of a single Infantry unit (with transport).


This sounds like a real solution to the FM problem. Please Hawk, can we have this?
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SwordOfJustice

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostTue Apr 12, 2016 12:46 pm

Paul7926 wrote:
Weidekuh wrote:I would change the Fast Mover battlegroup to the following: Add 1 Infantry slot. Only this infantry unit can be a FAC.
This gives you the choice to still have 6 activations on turn 1, for the cost of a single Infantry unit (with transport).


This sounds like a real solution to the FM problem. Please Hawk, can we have this?


+1

I dream of new battlegroup formations coming out for the factions one day. It would mix the game up without needing release of new models.

To avoid the old battlegroups being made obsolete, you could have the above new battlegroup only have one FM plus one infantry. So the prior fast mover BG would still allow you to field more FMs if you're so inclined.

Anyway, maybe that's better left till later when the game needs some new life. I'm still enjoying the game as it is right now.
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Cry of the Wind

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostTue Apr 12, 2016 2:25 pm

SwordOfJustice wrote:Well, then we're different players. :D

I like to quantify what game units can do and the only way to do that is with math. It helps me get a handle on what I can expect when my squad fires on an enemy unit and other things.

We all have those strings of lucky or unlucky rolls. With time, all those random fluctuations even out.

Knowing the statistics helps make effective game strategies.

Anyway, there's nothing wrong with playing models that one likes, stats be damned; it's just different approaches to the hobby. 8-)


Probably not so different. I just value what unit I like more highly in the selection of the unit process. My experience with gaming means I can see the basic math behind any D6 systems and guess the odds well enough on the fly. For list building it comes in handy as well but getting the stats down to a percentage finer than 33/50/66 chances won't really sway my opinion of a unit. Math alone won't tell you everything about a unit as we both know. For fast movers I find the Seraphim to be worth it for the ability to give me a chance at something that would not otherwise be possible in the list. Being the only unit able to kill that fleeing objective or kill that unit hiding behind the focal point is something that the stats don't convey.

I like that idea of having an infantry unit in the air group for FAC. Seems like a cool idea and agree with SworOfJustice on how I would like to see it used. One day maybe even some dedicated units/models to be used for it too.
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Berjiz

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostTue Apr 12, 2016 11:46 pm

Maybe scout would fit better than infantry? Or allow the player to choose either scout or infantry
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pupitbackster

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostWed Apr 13, 2016 2:09 pm

+1 on the infantry slot in forward air controllers. I would probably put a mortar team in a bear for that slot as FAC
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Paul7926

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Re: Fast Mover Activation Chance

PostWed Apr 13, 2016 2:34 pm

I'm not sure you want that slot to be too flexible. You are getting the benefit of always having an activation for your air battle group so you probably shouldn't be getting dual purpose and having Exotics or CQB specialists use it. It should probably be just standard infantry plus their transport given the designated role of FAC.

We want to remove the biggest down side of that battle group so it becomes a real choice, we don't want to be creating loopholes or making it too good. We also don't want air battle groups with no planes just the infantry option!

I really think this little change (given that it started by having FAC available in the first place) is much better than trying to alter the cost or configuration of the flyer itself. Any change to the flyer is pointless if it doesn't come on and probably too good if it comes on faster than the average.
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