chrisloomis13 wrote:If we gonna wishlist, I'd rather keep infantry out of the air group. I think the attack runs and intercepts should work differently and get rid of the reserves roll. Essentially, FM start in readiness. T1 they can attack run on a 6, no intercept. T2 they attack run on a 4, intercept on a 6. etc. This can be modified by FACs (so FAC deployed w/ LoS T1 would allow 5+ attack run, 6+ intercept.

To the original point, what are numbers of getting 1 FM when you have 2 squads of FM (2 rolls)?

My theory has been for FM to be effective you need 2 efficient* squads and the air group total pt cost needs to stay around 10% of your list. By efficient I mean decent rate of fire, so even though 2 single Corsairs could stay around 10%, they are not effective w/ 1 shot; you would want 2 Corsairs per squad (4 total). The Archangels are what lead me to these loose numbers, and I want to test double Warspear to see if the percentage could be more like 15%.

Chance of coming in turn one if you have two FM squads? Easy.

Two reserve rolls = 36 possible outcomes.

One outcome for roll of double 6 = 3% chance both come in.

Ten outcomes where you get at least one six = 28% to get one FM.

So it's very close to one in three games where your FM will make an appearance on turn one.

Then you need to roll availability for each attack run which is 87% to be available. That reduces the chance a bit.

Note: it's almost unimaginable that FAC could assist on turn one, except Resistance fighters designated as FAC in a bus as they're allowed to draw LOS while inside the bus.